The Power To Perform: mhj3.com Managing Investing Judgment Since 1989
Investor's
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Where you are trying to go Investment Planning: Investor's CalcStation | How you are going to get there Portfolio Management: Investor's WorkStation | How well you have done Modified Dietz Performance Calculator: PerfCalc | mhj3.com Home | Contact Us | Free 30-Day Software Trials | Prices/Order Investor's CalcSation If you are looking for software that will generate boatloads of pie chart, graph, and historical data dump infested reports, that will tell you or your clients what you/they already know about yourself/themselves, and that generate mindless, static income and capital accumulation projections in pyrotechnic splendor, you will be better served elsewhere. However, if you want to address the substantive issues of financial planning that actually do determine the quality of dynamic income and capital accumulation projections, that indicate potential obstacles to those goals in just a few reports, and that enable the user to modify input to arrive at realistic and achievable income and capital accumulation projections in just a few reports, take the time to understand Investor's CalcStation. After you have determined what needs to be done, use Investor's WorkStation to get the job done. mhj3 Years ago I was told by a long-time client who wanted to transfer a significant amount of capital to his daughter that he wanted to see simple, complete, and accurate actual and projected budget, cash flow analysis, and balance sheet 'instant replays' that were reflective of her current financial condition and that would project in detail where she might hope to be at various times in her financial future under different investing scenarios; to use his words, he did not want to see "A lot of garbage;" what I later learned to mean (my words) no voluminous pages of information telling me what I already know about myself, no pie charts, no graphs, and no historical past performance investment data dumps. Standard investment plans typically offer considerable information about form and frame but little about design and structure to give the investor an investing direction and really nothing about the motor that will drive the investor to his or her investing destination:
Define, modify, and manage the savings and investing tasks at hand; a walk in the park, just a bump in the road, or climb Mt. Everest — investor's current and projected Budgets (Income - Expenses), Assets, Liabilities, Personal Cash Flows, Balance Sheets, and Net Worth Investment Goal Analyses over selected analysis periods using the investor's actual and projected sources and uses of funds and the advisor's actual and projected capital growth rates, interest rates, and inflation rates. Rather
than make constant asset income and capital growth assumptions which will result
in grossly misstating/distorting/oversimplifying
income and capital growth projections, track and modify actual and/or projected
cash flows and blocks of asset and liability capital as they change composition
over time; type, amount of capital, dividends, interest, income, growth rate,
and holding period. The Goal The starting point for building investment capital is to create a simple, but complete and dynamic budget, savings, asset accumulation, income stream, and net worth plan; if you do not know where you are trying to go, how are you going to get there? Problem If you were building a home for your future, what would you think of an architect who gave you your floor plan in pie chart rather than as a blueprint?
The integrity of investment planning software and the quality of an investment plan will be determined by numbers their origins and quality and not by the number of pie charts, graphs, and data dumps investment planning software can generate and not by the number of pages in an investment plan. Most standard investment plans presented in the eye-catching wizardry of colorful pie chart, graph, and historical investment database infested reports offer considerable information about form and design but little about the details of the frame and the structure that will give an investor an investing direction and really nothing about the details of the motor the specifics and the 'what ifs' of the investing decision making and action taking processes over time that will drive the investor to his or her investing destination. The appeal of these types of investment advising and investing styles and strategies are that neither investing judgment nor investment and portfolio management skills are required; just search historical investment databases based on past investment performance, retrieve investments based on past investment performance, sort investments based on past investment performance, pick investments based on past investment performance, view, print, and present and then hope that the investing past will be the investing future. Standard/Default Investment Planning Software Income/Capital Accumulation Projection Errors and Omissions The integrity of investment planning software and the quality of an investment plan will be determined by numbers their origins and quality and not by the number of pie charts, graphs, and data dumps investment planning software can generate and not by the number of pages in an investment plan. Standard investment planning software income/capital growth rate assumptions and projections are typically based on user entered constant rates of return for broad default rate income/capital growth assumptions and/or for different types/classes of investments over an analysis period which will almost always result in gross miscalculations of income/capital growth projections.
Clearly there is no single rate assumption that could be responsibly and reliably used that would result in a reasonably accurate income/capital accumulation projection for this block of capital. It is essential for the user to be able to track a budget and blocks of capital and their specific and unique income and capital growth components over an analysis period to arrive at responsible income/capital accumulation projections. For example, and to the extreme to make the point: Start with $100,000 cash @ money market @ 2%, use cash @ money market to buy ABC mutual fund which is projected to grow @ 7%, which has actual growth 9%. Sell a portion of land and buy more of ABC mutual fund. Sell the balance of land and, with the proceeds from the sale of land, buy rental property for $450,000, which is projected to appreciate @ 5%, which is projected to generate $45,000 annual income, which is projected to grow @ a rate of 7%, which projected income and value will have to be reconciled to actual income and value @ various times during the analysis period, which is projected to be sold for $500,000 in year 10, which is sold for an actual value of $600,000 in year ten, which the proceeds are used to buy municipal bonds in year ten, which are projected to be held for 15 years, and which are projected to yield @ a tax-free rate of 5%, which actually yield @ a tax-free rate 4% and which actually are held for 12 years. Other Standard/Default Investment Planning Software Problems Standard Investment Planning Input In most cases, most investment planning input and recommendations center around the following:
Risk questionnaires should not be the only/primary consideration for creating an investment plan because investments made based on risk tolerances alone may not be the right type of investments for what is needed to get the job done. Standard/Default Investment Plans Most investment plans are composed of four sections:
Standard Investment Plan Assumptions
Asset Allocations on what basis? Rate assumptions for broad investment categories and returns based on what? After the initial investments have been made, how is the portfolio going to be managed and modified to keep it on the optimum investment performance path? Standard Investment Plan Bar Chart and Graph Investment Goal Analysis
Why would anyone want to look at -much less think about and talk about- this kind of Cash Flow Summary and the reams of data that follow; especially when numbers themselves will produce a clearer picture? Standard Investment Plan Monte Carlo Analysis
Who is trying to kid whom; the 'Chance of meeting goals is 85.0%' using Monte Carlo Analysis? Standard Investment Plan Efficient Frontier Analysis
Efficient Frontier Analysis investment recommendations and portfolio modification based on the investment past:
Standard Investment Plan Investment Recommendations
A lot about the frame, glitter, and color but nothing about the engine that will drive the investor to his or her investing destination. Forget about using investment risk questionnaires, graphs, and pie charts to project investment futures because none of them determine investment performance outcomes. | ||||