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Investor's CalcStation Premise

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Investor's CalcSation

If you are looking for software that will generate boatloads of pie chart, graph, and historical data dump infested reports, that will tell you or your clients what you/they already know about yourself/themselves, and that generate mindless, static income and capital accumulation projections in pyrotechnic splendor, you will be better served elsewhere. However, if you want to address the substantive issues of financial planning that actually do determine the quality of dynamic income and capital accumulation projections, that indicate potential obstacles to those goals in just a few reports, and that enable the user to modify input to arrive at realistic and achievable income and capital accumulation projections in just a few reports, take the time to understand Investor's CalcStation. After you have determined what needs to be done, use Investor's WorkStation to get the job done.

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Years ago I was told by a long-time client — who wanted to transfer a significant amount of capital to his daughter — that he wanted to see simple, complete, and accurate actual and projected budget, cash flow analysis, and balance sheet 'instant replays' that were reflective of her current financial condition and that would project in detail where she might hope to be at various times in her financial future under different investing scenarios; to use his words, he did not want to see "A lot of garbage;" what I later learned to mean (my words) no voluminous pages of information telling me what I already know about myself, no pie charts, no graphs, and no historical past performance investment data dumps.

Standard investment plans typically offer considerable information about form and frame but little about design and structure to give the investor an investing direction and really nothing about the motor that will drive the investor to his or her investing destination:

  • They usually downplay or even ignore the more important investment issues of establishing an investment philosophy, defining the correct investment selection process, and adopting proven portfolio management disciplines.
  • They are usually of little material or directional value because they are often just an "instant replay" of an investor’s financial past, merely parroting back initial questionnaire input showing the individual what he or she already knows about himself/herself. 
  • They are composed of historical data and hypothetical assumptions, presented in the eye-catching wizardry of colorful pie charts, graphs, and an array of schedules are but sleight-of-hand used to generate a very generic, over-assumed, and under-planned investment plan.

Define, modify, and manage the savings and investing tasks at hand; a walk in the park, just a bump in the road, or climb Mt. Everest — investor's current and projected Budgets (Income - Expenses), Assets, Liabilities, Personal Cash Flows, Balance Sheets, and Net Worth Investment Goal Analyses over selected analysis periods using the investor's actual and projected sources and uses of funds and the advisor's actual and projected capital growth rates, interest rates, and inflation rates.

Rather than make constant asset income and capital growth assumptions which will result in grossly misstating/distorting/oversimplifying income and capital growth projections, track and modify actual and/or projected cash flows and blocks of asset and liability capital as they change composition over time; type, amount of capital, dividends, interest, income, growth rate, and holding period.

The Goal

The starting point for building investment capital is to create a simple, but complete and dynamic budget, savings, asset accumulation, income stream, and net worth plan; if you do not know where you are trying to go, how are you going to get there?

Problem

If you were building a home for your future, what would you think of an architect who gave you your floor plan in pie chart rather than as a blueprint?

 

  • Your Architect: "I show my designs in primitive pie chart rather than in the usual, more traditional blueprint format to create a more natural impression and to give you a better picture of what your new home may look like. Red represents brick and green is for the lawn. The gray indicates that we will be using a lot of nails. Oh yes, I almost forgot, the pie chart seems to indicate that the structure should hold."

  • Your Doctor: "Here are your pie chart physical results. The pie chart indicates that we should remove all of the yellow and add a little more red when we go into surgery and open you up in a few minutes. By the way, you are in luck because the sliver of black in the pie chart seems to indicate that anesthesia will not be necessary while you are being operated on."

The integrity of investment planning software and the quality of an investment plan will be determined by numbers — their origins and quality — and not by the number of pie charts, graphs, and data dumps investment planning software can generate and not by the number of pages in an investment plan.

Most standard investment plans — presented in the eye-catching wizardry of colorful pie chart, graph, and historical investment database infested reports — offer considerable information about form and design but little about the details of the frame and the structure that will give an investor an investing direction and really nothing about the details of the motor — the specifics and the 'what ifs' of the investing decision making and action taking processes over time — that will drive the investor to his or her investing destination.

The appeal of these types of investment advising and investing styles and strategies are that neither investing judgment nor investment and portfolio management skills are required; just search historical investment databases based on past investment performance, retrieve investments based on past investment performance, sort investments based on past investment performance, pick investments based on past investment performance, view, print, and present and then hope that the investing past will be the investing future.

Standard/Default Investment Planning Software Income/Capital Accumulation Projection Errors and Omissions

The integrity of investment planning software and the quality of an investment plan will be determined by numbers — their origins and quality — and not by the number of pie charts, graphs, and data dumps investment planning software can generate and not by the number of pages in an investment plan.

Standard investment planning software income/capital growth rate assumptions and projections are typically based on user entered constant rates of return for broad default rate income/capital growth assumptions and/or for different types/classes of investments over an analysis period which will almost always result in gross miscalculations of income/capital growth projections.

  • For example, standard investment planning software generally limits the user to entering broad default rate assumptions, such as Taxable Investments and Nontaxable Investments and a few allow the user to enter default rate assumptions for different broad classes of investments.
    • Growth Mutual Funds @ 7% would be included in all cases for one class of investments regardless of the fact that individual/specific Growth Mutual Funds have very different combinations and rates of income and capital growth; actual and projected.
    • Each of these investments (blocks of capital) are almost always changing in their composition over time; type of investment, amount, and holding period.
    • Each of these investments (blocks of capital) are almost always changing in their income and capital growth rates of return.
      • Income @ 5% of value and increasing @ 3% annually and capital appreciation @ 10% of value for five years and Income @ 3 % of value and increasing @ 0% annually and capital appreciation @ 2% of value for years 6 through 10; rental property for example.

Clearly there is no single rate assumption that could be responsibly and reliably used that would result in a reasonably accurate income/capital accumulation projection for this block of capital.

Data Entry

It is essential for the user to be able to track a budget and blocks of capital and their specific and unique income and capital growth components over an analysis period to arrive at responsible income/capital accumulation projections.

For example, and to the extreme to make the point:

Start with $100,000 cash @ money market @ 2%, use cash @ money market to buy ABC mutual fund which is projected to grow @ 7%, which has actual growth 9%. Sell a portion of land and buy more of ABC mutual fund. Sell the balance of land and, with the proceeds from the sale of land, buy rental property for $450,000, which is projected to appreciate @ 5%, which is projected to generate $45,000 annual income, which is projected to grow @ a rate of 7%, which projected income and value will have to be reconciled to actual income and value @ various times during the analysis period, which is projected to be sold for $500,000 in year 10, which is sold for an actual value of $600,000 in year ten, which the proceeds are used to buy municipal bonds in year ten, which are projected to be held for 15 years, and which are projected to yield @ a tax-free rate of 5%, which actually yield @ a tax-free rate 4% and which actually are held for 12 years.

Other Standard/Default Investment Planning Software Problems

Standard Investment Planning Input

In most cases, most investment planning input and recommendations center around the following:

  • Enter investor's investment profile; risk tolerances, income/capital growth objectives, and time horizon.
  • Complete a risk tolerance questionnaire to determine acceptable investment risk; the primary basis for investment selection.
  • The investments selected and the possible ranges of investment performance results are based more on the perceived risk tolerances of the investor (low, medium, high) as entered in subjective risk profile questionnaires rather than different types, weightings, and combinations of investments in different investment portfolios under different market conditions.
    • 'Based on your risk tolerances, this is what you need.'
  • Investments that fit the investor's investment profile — but do not necessarily fit the investment need, or the current market conditions, or the market outlook — are selected, a pie chart is created, investments are made, the pie chart goes into the trash (where it belongs), and all parties, in most cases just wing it from there while hoping for the best.

Risk questionnaires should not be the only/primary consideration for creating an investment plan because investments made based on risk tolerances alone may not be the right type of investments for what is needed to get the job done.

Standard/Default Investment Plans

Most investment plans are composed of four sections:

  • Investor investment profile and objectives and investment assumptions.
  • Graphic cash flow analysis.
  • Monte Carlo analysis and efficient frontier analysis.
  • Comparative from/to investment proposal pie charts.

Standard Investment Plan Assumptions

Asset Allocations on what basis?

Rate assumptions for broad investment categories and returns based on what?

After the initial investments have been made, how is the portfolio going to be managed and modified to keep it on the optimum investment performance path?

Standard Investment Plan Bar Chart and Graph Investment Goal Analysis

Why would anyone want to look at -much less think about and talk about- this kind of Cash Flow Summary and the reams of data that follow; especially when numbers themselves will produce a clearer picture?

Standard Investment Plan Monte Carlo Analysis

Who is trying to kid whom; the 'Chance of meeting goals is 85.0%' using Monte Carlo Analysis?

Standard Investment Plan Efficient Frontier Analysis

Efficient Frontier Analysis investment recommendations and portfolio modification based on the investment past:

'Updated Efficient Frontier Analysis historical investment performance data indicates that we might do better if you were to move your current investments that did well in the distant past prior to your investing in them, but have not done well since you owned them, into the latest investments that have done the best in the most recent past.

Standard Investment Plan Investment Recommendations

A lot about the frame, glitter, and color but nothing about the engine that will drive the investor to his or her investing destination.

Forget about using investment risk questionnaires, graphs, and pie charts to project investment futures because none of them determine investment performance outcomes.