Investment
advisors, stockbrokers, investment analysts, investment research firms, and individual
investors who manage their own capital are always closer to random investment
selection than they think they are, than they are willing to admit. Whether
doing one's investment selection due diligence or whether selecting investments
at random, the results from both investment selection methodologies — careful
investment selection and random investment selection — will be about the same
most of the time; both generating good and bad investment selections and both
yielding similar investment selection performance distributions; some up and some
down; most a little, some quite a bit, and a few a lot; the problems, of course,
being not knowing in advance what each investment will do; what direction, when,
how far, and for how long.
Investments
selected at random and governed by just basic/the minimum user
defined Portfolio Management
Disciplines, Rules, and Procedures
can't get in trouble will outperform carefully selected investments
generally ungoverned adrift, results more by chance than by design.
mhj3 Like
most investment advisors,
when I was in the earlier stages of investment advising, I knew what investors
needed to do, I was compelling as to why investors needed to do what I recommended
they should do, and I was much better than most in convincing them to take action;
however, after the initial transactions were executed, I was more unclear than
not about the ongoing investment and portfolio management processes of specifically
and actually how to get the job done in changing market conditions over time;
the processes of converting conversation into performance more adrift than
in control, undisciplined rather than disciplined, and results more by chance
than by design. Take
a moment and follow my thought process: - I
know, as anyone who
advises and invests knows:
- Regardless
of the source for investment ideas, the performance distribution from all sources
will be about the same; some ideas up and some down; most a little, a few quite
a bit, and one or two a lot.
- Economic
opinion and market forecasting will range from terrible,
to close, to a few lucky calls.
- All
investment advisors and investors make both 'right' and 'wrong' investment selection
and investment timing decisions—true from Buffett and Soros to you and to me—because
being both 'investment right' and 'investment wrong' are built into the financial
markets.
- Also,
If I were required to select investments at random rather than going through the
normal investment selection 'vetting' steps that we all take, my very first
step would be to define, apply, and enforce some portfolio management disciplines,
rules, and procedures to help me separate the good from the bad, the weak from
the strong, and the well timed from the poorly timed.
- I
would design portfolio management software to help me process my portfolio management
disciplines, rules, and procedures.
- Now
change the rules and allow me, as we all can and do, to analyze, sort, and select
investments by whatever means I choose.
- Should
I stop applying my portfolio management disciplines, rules, and procedures?
- Clearly
not; portfolio management disciplines, rules, and procedures can only help me
to improve performance.
- The
point being that most of us (advisors and investors) depend too much on investment
selection to perform and not enough on the ongoing processes of portfolio management
which govern the dynamics of change for each and all of the underlying investment
portfolio investments.
- The
centerpiece of one's investment advising and investing performance skills must be to
build and to protect investors' investment capital by creating, managing, and
modifying structurally sound and competitive investment portfolios that match
appropriately selected and weighted investment sectors and
suitable underlying investments with different investor investment profiles; different
investing time horizons, risk tolerances and income/capital growth objectives.
- Portfolio management
disciplines, rules, and procedures are the investing performance edge that we
all need and which most of us do not have or use when creating and modifying investment
portfolios.
I
needed to be able to create and modify investment portfolios in an instant as
investor investment profiles, the current market conditions, relative investment
values, and the market outlook change: - Rebalance
to maintain the initial structural integrity of investment portfolios by resetting
Investment Sectors and underlying Investments to their original weightings.
- Insures
the most efficient accumulation of investments that are to be held as capital
is continuously redistributed as investment prices oscillate/crisscross over time.
- Sell
some of an investment(s) that is 'overpriced' and therefore overweighted
for the moment to buy more of an investment(s) that is 'underpriced' and
therefore underweighted for the moment.
- Done
with a single mouse click.
- Reallocate
to keep investment portfolios competitive by setting investment portfolios to
modified and or new selections and combinations of Investment Sectors and/or underlying
Investments.
- Done
with a single mouse click.
- Set
Investment Sector and Investment Price alerts.
An
extreme hypothetical; just to make the point: - I
have decided that I want my clients to sell 60% of their IBM and use the proceeds
to buy MSFT, to sell 100% of their EK and allocate the proceeds to other investments
as weighted in your selected and linked Advisor Database (modifiable Model Portfolio
Template by user defined Investment Sectors and underlying Investment Categories
composed of any number and combination of underlying weighted investments), to
reduce cash in all portfolios by 25% and to allocate that cash to the linked Advisor
Database (Model Portfolio), to increase the weighting of Large Cap. Equities in
all portfolios that use that investment sector, to eliminate Utilities altogether
in all portfolios that hold them (as I feel they are overpriced in general and
that the sector will underperform others in the future) to add, weight, and apply
the appropriate amount of capital to two added user defined Investment Sectors
-Mid. Cap. and Small Cap. Equities- and selected, underlying investments as weighted,
to sell all stocks in Large Cap. Equities that are in the Investment Category
titled Computer Peripherals, to change the selections and weightings of some underlying
investments In REITs and Large Cap. Equities, and, finally, to Rebalance original
investments not affected by this operation back to their initial investment weightings.
- I
also want all affected portfolios to reflect these changes, to have updated portfolios,
to have a report showing buys, sells, and holds by portfolio and a total, to retrieve
a report summarizing and accounting for the % changes by investment sectors for
each portfolio, to create a trade export to execute trades, and to import executed
trades to update all portfolio positions and costs.
To
make the changes: - Modify
the associated Allocation Table Matrix; this will take about five minutes, max.
- Modify
linked Advisor Database (Model Portfolio Template) used to create the portfolios
in question; a minute or two at most.
- Click
on Reallocate; an instant.
- Export
the Trade Export; a millisecond.
- Print
reports.
- Import
executed trades to update portfolios; in seconds.
- Print
reports.
In
general, it can be said that if you can think it, Investor's WorkStation
can do it. A
learning curve, sure; but,
take the time, and you will never look back. |