The Power To Perform: mhj3.com Managing Investing Judgment Since 1989

Algorithms and a Brief History of the Evolution of Calculating Investment Portfolio Returns On Investment
Simple ROI, Midpoint Dietz, Modified Dietz, Large Cash Flows Geometric Linking, Daily Valuation

Primary Investment Portfolio Performance Calculation Categories

Time Weighted Rate of Return (TWRR)

Time-weighted returns is a measure of the compound rate of return of a portfolio over a stated period of time. It requires a set of sub-period returns to be calculated whenever there is an external cash flow, such as a deposit or withdrawal from the portfolio:

  • Ignores the effect of the external cash flows; that is, the cash flows from you.
  • Represents the managers performance.
  • Dated external cash flows; investor initiated dated withdrawals and dated contributions required.
    • Cash flows may occur at irregular intervals; different combinations of days, weeks, months and years.
  • Requires Market Value entries for Modified Dietz, geometric linking, large cash flows, and daily valuation performance calculation methodologies.
    • Geometric linking, large cash flows geometric linking, and daily valuation performance calculations require a set of sub-period returns to be calculated whenever there is an external cash flow, such as a deposit or withdrawal from the portfolio:
  • Closed form calculation.
  • Excel XIRR will not calculate TWRR correctly for most situations.

Money-Weighted, Dollar-Weighted Rate of Return (MWRR)

Dollar-weighted, money-weighted rate of return, also called the internal rate of return, is the interest rate that will make the present value of the cash flows from all the subperiods in the evaluation period plus the terminal market value of the portfolio equal to the initial market value of the portfolio.

The calculation of a bond's yield to maturity is an example of money-weighted, dollar-weighted rate of return (IRR):

  • Factors all cash flows; contributions and withdrawals.
  • Represents the portfolio's performance.
  • Requires only beginning and ending valuation and all cash flows.
    • Cash flows must occur at regular intervals; days, weeks, months, or years.
  • Iterative calculation.

It's important to understand the main limitation of the money-weighted return as a tool for evaluating managers:

  • Money-weighted measure does not treat a portfolio manager fairly.
    • Assuming a money-weighted return is calculated over many periods, the algorithm will tend to place a greater weight on the performance in periods when the account size is highest; hence the label money-weighted.

TWRR Performance Calculation Examples

The following data will be used in each of the investment portfolio performance calculation methodologies explained below:

 

12/31/2009 Market Value: $100,000 (Close of Business, 01/01/2010 Start)

 

01/15/2010 Accrued Income Paid: $1,150

04/14/2010 Market Value (Wednesday Close, Thursday 04/15/2010 Open): $103,000

04/15/2010 Investor Withdrawal: -$5,000

11/19/2010 Market Value (Friday Close, Monday 11/22/2010 Open): $99,000

11/22/2010 Investor Contribution: $25,000

12/15/2010 Accrued Interest: $3,500

12/21/2010 Market Value $180,000

12/22/2010 Investor Contribution $50,000

12/27/2010 Advisor Fees Paid (Type 2) $2,300

12/31/2010 Market Value: $192,000

Analysis Range 12/31/2009 - 12/31/2010 One Year

Algorithms

Simple R
Midpoint Dietz

Modified Dietz

 

Geometric Linking

 

 

Simple 'ROI'

Total return formula; no unique/correct calculation of cash flows:

'ROI' Reliability/QualityReturn Calculation Methodology
Annual Return

Bad
(Unless no external cash flows.)

Simple 'ROI'
12.94%

 

Problems

  • No accounting for cash flow dates; composition of BMV composed of initial lump sum or BMV @ Start and net of contributions/withdrawals regardless of date(s) external cash flows were added to the portfolio.
    • The issue being how much capital was available to generate 'TWRR' during the analysis range.
      • If all BMV @ Start, 'TWRR' is correct.
    • If not, 'TWRR' is incorrect
      • $100,000 BMV: $100,000 @ Start and the net of -$5,000, + $25,000 + $50,000= +$70,000 @ a later and different dates are treated as being included in BMV in this equation to calculate 'TWRR'.
        • If BMV of $170,000 was available from the beginning of the period, all of it was used to generate 'TWRR'; OK.
        • If BMV was actually composed of $100,000 available @ Start then, to the extreme, a net of $70,000 was deposited on the last day, $100,000 was used to generate 'TWRR', not $170,000; not OK.
  • No/incorrect accounting for advisor fees taken or accruals.

Original Midpoint Dietz

 

The Original Midpoint Dietz Method approximates when cash flows are received by assuming that all cash flows (CF) occur at the midpoint of the period and half-weights the total flows for the period:

 

'TWRR' Reliability/QualityReturn Calculation Methodology
Annual Return

Poor
(Will significantly understate or overstate returns; unless, by chance, all external cash flows, large and small, occur @ midpoint date of analysis range.)

Midpoint Dietz
16.25%

 

Problems

  • Does not calculate 'TWRR' based on actual date of cash flows.
  • No/incorrect accounting for advisor fees taken or accruals.

Modified Dietz

 

The Modified Dietz Method improves upon the Original Dietz Method by assuming a constant rate of return on the portfolio during the period, thereby eliminating the need to know the value of the portfolio on the date of each cash flow.

 

In an attempt to determine a more accurate return than the Original Dietz Method, the Modified Dietz Method weights each cash flow by the amount of time each cash flow is actually held in the portfolio.

 

The estimate surfers most when a combination of the following conditions exist: (1) one or more large cash flows occur, (2) cash flows occur during periods of high market volatility.

 

 

'TWRR' Reliability/QualityReturn Calculation Methodology
Annual Return

Good
(Noncompliant, unacceptable in this example because of large 'Investor Contribution' external cash flows; $25,000 and $50,000)

Modified Dietz

21.97%


GIPS

To resolve the 'large cash flows' and 'periods of high market volatility' performance calculation vulnerabilities of Modified Dietz, beginning January 1, 2010, GIPS standard require the use of calculation methods that use actual valuation at the time of large external cash flows.

  • 'Large' is not specifically defined by GIPS.
    • The GIPS standards define large cash flow as the level at which the firm determines that an external cash flow may distort performance if the portfolio is not valued.
      • 5% - 10%.
Cash Flows

Modified Dietz Geometric Linking, Large Cash Flows Geometric Linking, and Daily Valuation Geometric Linking methodologies break the total performance period into cash flow sub-periods:

  • Modified Dietz Geometric Linking: User entered dated Market Values @ user selected time intervals (Quarters and/or Years, for example), with dated entries for small external cash flows, advisor fees taken, and accrued cash flows as they occur.
    • Modified Dietz MV1-MV4 and Modified Dietz Geometric Linking MV1-MV2, MV2-MV3, MV3-MV4 performance calculations my be the same; depending on the size and frequency of small external cash flows, advisor fees taken, and accruals.
  • Large Cash Flows Geometric Linking: User entered dated Market Values @ user selected time intervals (Quarters and/or Years, for example) with dated entries for small external cash flows, advisor fees taken, and accrued cash flows as they occur and Market Value entry/entries on the date/dates prior to a large external cash flow(s).
  • Daily Valuation: The actual valuation of the position, account, or portfolio each time there is an external cash flow; regardless of amount.
    • Daily Valuation can result in generating the most accurate time-weighted rate of return calculation; however, in most cases performance calculation variances between Daily and Modified Dietz valuations are so small as to not justify the added input effort.

Modified Dietz Geometric Linking, Large Cash Flows Geometric Linking, Daily Valuation Geometric Linking

 

Sub-period returns are geometrically linked according to the following formula:

 

PerfCalc GIPS 2010 Modified Dietz Geometric Linking, Large Cash Flows Geometric Linking, Daily Valuation Geometric Linking

 

 

 

The chief advantage of this method is that Modified Dietz calculates rather than estimates (as does MWRR) the true time-weighted rate of return.

 

PerfCalc generates correct, complete, and compliant investment portfolio performance calculations because Market Values, External Cash Flows, and optional adjustments to profit (one type of fee and accruals) are better accounted for:

 

 

'TWRR' Reliability/QualityReturn Calculation Methodology
Annual Return

Better
(Very reliable performance calculations for most situations.)

Modified Dietz Geometric Linking and Large Cash Flows Geometric Linking
(GIPS compliant.)

25.95%

 

Daily Valuation

 

The difference between Large Cash Flows Geometric Linking and Daily Valuation Geometric Linking methodologies is simply one of degrees; Large Cash Flows Geometric Linking; enter a Market Value @ large external cash flows only and Daily Valuation Geometric Linking; enter a Market Value @ all external cash flows:

  • Daily valuation means valuation, a market value entry, on the date of all external cash flows — by PerfCalc convention a Market Value on the day prior to an external cash flow is treated as the starting market value on the day of an external cash flow.
  • Think of each methodology from Modified Dietz, to Modified Dietz Geometric Linking, to Large Cash Flows Geometric Linking, to Daily Valuation Geometric Linking as zooming in from one Modified Dietz calculation for an analysis range, to a few/many Modified Dietz geometrically linked Market Value entry analysis ranges, to Modified Dietz Large Cash Flow Geometric Linking Calculations within the same analysis range(s), to many geometrically linked Modified Dietz calculations for all external cash flows within the same analysis range; the more the Modified Dietz calculations within an analysis range when external cash flows, advisor fees taken, and accruals occur, the better, the more precise the performance calculation.
'TWRR' Reliability/QualityReturn Calculation Methodology
Annual Return

Best
(Most reliable performance calculations for all situations.)

Daily Valuation
(GIPS compliant.)
25.77%

In most cases, entering a market value entry on the date prior to all cash flows is not worth the added input effort when comparing the results to a Large Cash Flows Geometric Linking calculation.